Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Florida's Independent Crist Moves Ahead of GOP Candidate for Governor

The political drama in Florida continues with bad news for the Republican Party. 

Gov. Charlie Crist, who quit the GOP last week to run as an independent candidate for the U.S. Senate, is now polling ahead of Republican Marco Rubio in a three-way race.

The Florida poll data is here.


Man of the West said...

Let's see: Rubio was way out front two weeks ago. There are still several months of campaigning left and the outcome is by no means certain. The only thing that seems to be holding steady is that the Democratic candidate, Meek, is so far behind as not to be a factor. Crist, if he wins, will likely be with the Republicans more often than not, though admittedly not as often as Rubio would be. And you see this as bad news for Republicans?

You do have a way of seeing things...

Tulsan said...

As I recall, a scant time ago, 'Man of the West' said sarcastically:

"I have to admit, that is some of the most incisive thinking I have encountered today. Crist started out about 30 points ahead of Rubio, and wound up 30 points behind Rubio before he rabbited, and the World--and you, apparently--brilliantly conclude that Crist dumped the GOP, rather than the other way 'round.

"Your logic is airtight. Somebody alert Mensa."

Crist is almost immediately polling stronger than the GOP candidate among the general electorate. Perhaps we need to get AT fitted for that Mensa beanie.

Crist may not feel such a strong affiliation with the GOP after their shabby treatment of him. Should he win, he might feel emboldened to vote with the Democrats more than you suppose.

But as you say, there are months left in the campaign. Much could happen. Crist and Rubio might cancel each other out, to the Democrat's benefit. A new Democratic or independent candidate might yet emerge. Who knows?

But Crist clearly has a good chance of winning after his dumping of the GOP. Give him a beanie, too.

Tulsan said...

I sadly neglected to mention that the IRS is investigating the credit card usage of the Florida Republican Party. The IRS is separately looking into the tax records of the three GOP leaders who held the credit cards, one of whom is Rubio.

If I were Crist or Meek, I believe I would highlight that in my campaign.

"Drill, baby, drill" is not going to play so "well" when the oil starts coating Florida beaches. Could anyone make political hay with that, do you suppose?

Man of the West said...

The sarcastic comment to which you refer was, of course, quoted from someone to home Alt had linked, mocking El Rushbo for something goofy. Since it seemed to me that Alt's apparent acceptance of the idea that Crist had dumped the GOP rather than the other way 'round was equally boneheaded, it seemed appropriate.

Mercy. A few weeks ago, Crist was on TV, telling people that he would absolutely not run as an independent. His primary numbers continued to tank, and he rabbited. Republican voters as a whole clearly didn't want him, and he split, clearly hoping to pick up enough moderate Republicans and relatively conservative Democrats to eke out a victory. That's fine; he's entitled to such a strategy. I just thought it was ridiculous to tout that as him having "dumped" the GOP. Still do.

Sure, it's possible that in a three-way race, he'll win. Three-way races can be very peculiar.

The point in the last comment, which I'm not sure came across well to you, is that no matter how you slice it, two-thirds of those polled didn't want the Democrat. When Alt decided that such numbers are bad news for the GOP, I couldn't help but note that something seems a little peculiar about the way they interpret the news.

Tulsan said...

It hardly matters who dumped whom; it was all PR, as you say. Crist was headed for a reverse Lieberman.

You're right, if you look at the poll numbers, Crist's bump was at the expense of the Democrat, with Rubio not moving much.

I enjoy seeing the teabaggers take a beating. That's why I like seeing Crist pull ahead of Rubio. But the teabaggers do serve the function of keeping the party fractured.

Tulsan said...

Update: Crist is now hinting that he may veto the anti-abortion bill.

Guess he isn't planning to stick that close to the GOP stances.