Saturday, February 13, 2010

Science Alert: Despite Inhofe's Hysteria, Weather Is Not the Same as Climate

Since Tulsa is the home of one of the world's leading science deniers, Sen. Jim Inhofe, AltTulsa and other thinking Tulsa citizens have a duty to point out a few basic facts. 

One of these facts is fairly fundamental: When it's cold outside in a particular place at a particular time, that is not evidence against global warming or climate change. 

Here's how Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground put it this week:
As I discussed in my previous post, record-breaking snowstorms are not an indication that global warming is not occurring. In fact, we can expect there may be more heavy snowstorms in regions where it is cold enough to snow, due to the extra moisture global warming has added to the atmosphere--an extra 4% since 1970. Snow is not the same as cold ...

48 comments:

Man of the West said...

Whoops! There goes another wheel, gents. Darn big one, too.

But you're going to be the last ones on that bus no matter how silly it makes you look, aren't you? I know you will.

Mercy, this is rich.

Man of the West said...

And another wheel! Another darn big one, too!

I just loved this part:
“The temperature records cannot be relied on as indicators of global change,” said John Christy, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, a former lead author on the IPCC.

Even the people that wrote this bilge in the first place are starting to scramble off the bus. But you won't, will you?

Don't disappoint me!

Tulsan said...

Wikipedia:

While he supports the AGU declaration and is convinced that human activities are one cause of the global warming that has been measured, Christy is "still a strong critic of scientists who make catastrophic predictions of huge increases in global temperatures and tremendous rises in sea levels."

=====

Fair enough. There is room for differences of opinion in science.

=====

Wikipedia:

According to the results of a one-time questionnaire-based statistical survey published by the University of Illinois, with 3146 individuals completing the survey, 97% of the actively publishing climate scientists (as opposed to the scientists who are not publishing actively) agree that human activity, such as flue gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, is a significant contributing factor to global climate change. According to additional sources, the majority of scientists who work on climate change agree on the main points.

=====

Hmmm, I wonder who has more credibility? Scientists actively working in the field, or conservative pundits?

Tulsan said...

Here are the final paragraphs of your second citation:

=====

Kevin Trenberth, a lead author of the chapter of the IPCC report that deals with the observed temperature changes, said he accepted there were problems with the global thermometer record but these had been accounted for in the final report.

“It’s not just temperature rises that tell us the world is warming,” he said. “We also have physical changes like the fact that sea levels have risen around five inches since 1972, the Arctic icecap has declined by 40% and snow cover in the northern hemisphere has declined.”

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has recently issued a new set of global temperature readings covering the past 30 years, with thermometer readings augmented by satellite data.

Dr Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Met Office, said: “This new set of data confirms the trend towards rising global temperatures and suggest that, if anything, the world is warming even more quickly than we had thought.”

Man of the West said...

Tulsan, I knew I could count on you and/or Alt; you haven't disappointed. Faced with glaringly obvious evidence that global warming folks--including, obviously, those at the IPCC--routinely doctor their numbers, suppress data, accept poorly documented figures as evidence, and even outright lie, you soldier bravely on, attempting to trot out more of the same, as though adding a few more pounds to an already astronomical pile of bovine by-product will help the situation.

Knew it, knew it, knew it. You'll be touting this crap 'til you're a hundred years old.

That's what makes AltTulsa so interesting; I can always count on you guys. Trouts chasing flies are less reliable.

Tulsan said...

Man of the West, your absurdly superior tone puzzles me. On your own blog, you oscillate between it and a Biblical style of humility. Which is real, or is it both or neither?

Tulsan said...

CO2 = P x S x E x C

The world's most successful capitalist, Bill Gates, wants to eliminate climate emissions by 2050.

He too has fallen for the foolish environmental science that MotW has easily seen through. Obviously Gates is not as smart as we thought.

Man of the West said...

...your absurdly superior tone puzzles me.

Surely you jest. This blog regularly drips so much condescension that I am merely attempting to do as the Romans do.

Tulsan said...

Surprising then that your own blog consistently has the same tone as your remarks here.

Should Alternative Tulsa consider it a compliment that his blog affects your daily writings to such a degree?

Man of the West said...

Now you're being silly! Your complaint only a few comments ago was that my tone was inconsistent! Specifically, you said I "oscillate."

Honestly, I about half-think you don't expect anyone to notice things like that...

Tulsan said...

The oscillation is so heavily weighted to one side, it might go unnoticed.

Man of the West said...

Digging your hole deeper, in a fairly obvious attempt to distract attention from the fact that you're fairly obviously not paying attention to what you're writing...

At least, that's what it looks like to me. But I don't mean it in a harsh way.

Tulsan said...

This is funny. MotW just wrote this on his own blog:

"...I left a few comments on a blog on which I do not often comment, largely to point out how utterly vacuous and snotty their consistent mockery..."

Hey, who started the snottiness on this thread? Just read it from the top.

Man of the West said...

At this point I have to question whether you are bothering to try to understand.

Tulsan said...

You are right, this is a total waste of time.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Man of the West said...

Y'all done lost 'nother wheel. Thought y'might wanna know.

Tulsan said...

Well-said in the article:

"It's one of those things that happens. People make mistakes and mistakes happen in science." He said there were two separate technical mistakes in the paper, which were pointed out by other scientists after it was published. A formal retraction was required, rather than a correction, because the errors undermined the study's conclusion.

"Retraction is a regular part of the publication process," he said. "Science is a complicated game and there are set procedures in place that act as checks and balances."

===

Exactly. It isn't a matter of religious faith. Scientists do the best they can and make corrections when they discover errors and misconceptions. They get somewhere for their trouble. Worlds of usable technology exist because of the process.

Perhaps it is more comforting to some to "know" all the answers upfront.

Nobel-winning physicist Richard Feynman addressed that in speaking of psuedoscience:

===

"I have the advantage of having found out how hard it is to get to really know something, how careful you have to be about checking the experiment, how easy it is to make mistakes and fool yourself. I know what it means to know something, and therefore I see how they get their information and I can’t believe they know it, they haven’t done the work necessary, haven’t done the checks necessary, haven’t done the care necessary."

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